It’s that time of year again, folks; the sun is setting later, Easter Sunday invites are getting sent out and the tax return deadline is fast approaching. But for basketball fans, only one thing comes to mind this time of year: the men’s basketball NCAA Tournament.
If you were to pick all 63 games at random, your odds of a perfect bracket are one in 9.2 quintillion; however, someone who watches college basketball, along with the help of statistics and analytics, has improved odds of one out of 120 billion. There has never been proof of an actual perfect bracket; realistically, everybody who fills out a bracket has the same thing in mind: to win their pool and beat their friends, family, coworkers and even strangers. Here’s some advice to help with this year’s bracket.
South Region winner: Auburn University
Auburn has the most ‘Quad 1’ wins out of any team in the tournament with 16. All of its losses were against ranked teams, and they won the Southeastern Conference regular season title. Despite getting knocked out in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament by the University of Tennessee, the Tigers still have one of, if not the, strongest resumes in the country. The SEC was a 14-bid league this year, and Auburn dominated it. Auburn is led by its fourth-year forward Johni Broome, who is in contention for National Player of the Year. Broome averaged a double-double this season and had the sixth most in the country with 18. What really makes this Tigers team so good is their experience; the average age of Auburn’s starting lineup is 23.2 years old. To put that into perspective, the average age of the Oklahoma City Thunder starting lineup is 24.2. The Tigers are also playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they got upset by Yale University in the first round of the tournament last year and will be looking to avenge last year’s early exit.
West Region winner: University of Florida
Florida comes into the ‘big dance’ as the SEC champions; it had an impressive showing in the conference tournament, taking down a pair of top-10 teams in the country in back-to-back days in the University of Alabama and Tennessee. The Gators are led by their fourth-year guard Walter Clayton Jr, who is their leading scorer with 17.5 points per game. Clayton Jr. is primarily who the offense runs through, but what makes this team so dangerous is that their scoring can come from anyone, with four players who average double figures per game. The pair of fourth-year guards that accompany Clayton Jr. in the backcourt are Alijah Martin and Will Richard, who both average over 13 points per game. The Gators are also a top-10 rebounding team in the country, largely due to second-year forward Alex Condon, who averages 7.9 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. It’s hard to think that there is a more well-rounded team in the country right now than Florida, and the Gators will look to use that to carry them out of the West Region.
South Region winner: Tennessee
After beating Auburn in the SEC Tournament semifinals, the Vols lost in the championship to Florida, falling 86-77. Similar to the Gators, Tennessee has four players who average over 10 points per game. The scoring primarily comes from their backcourt, with the pair of fourth-year guards Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler. Lanier and Zeigler handle the ball and rarely turn it over. Tennessee only averages 10.8 turnovers per game, and is a top-30 team in assist to turnover ratio.
East Region winner: Alabama
The Crimson Tide made it to the Final Four last year as a four seed, and this year’s team might be even better than last year. The two big returners for the Tide are fourth-years Mark Sears and Grant Nelson, who played huge roles in their run to the Final Four in 2024. Alabama averages 91.1 points per game, which is over four points better than any other team in the country. The Tides Achilles’ heel has been their defense; they are 350th in the country in points allowed per game, letting up 81.1 points on average. However, last time I checked, teams that score more than their opponents are undefeated in basketball games, and 91 is greater than 81.
National Champion: Tennessee
Tennessee is a strong team in what I consider to be the weakest out of the four regions in the Midwest, which could set up a path to cruise to the Final Four. Head coach Rick Barnes has the leadership and experience in the tournament to put ‘Rocky Top’ over the top.
Upset alerts:
University of Akron
The Zips have only lost one game since Jan. 7 and are 21-1 in that span. They just won the Mid-American Conference Championship, where they trailed by as many as 18 points. They are one of, if not the, hottest teams in the country, and have shown the ability to come back late in games.
Lipscomb University
Lipscomb will face off against Iowa State University in the first round; lucky for them, the Cyclones are without star fourth-year guard Keshon Gilbert, who is a huge part of their offense. Iowa State will have to change their identity and style of play, and by the time they figure that out, it might be too late, and Lipscomb could shock the world.
Virginia Commonwealth University
The Rams are one of the best defensive teams in the country, and like to play press defense and to run circles around their opponents. They also have great depth off of their bench, as only three players on their roster play less than 10 minutes per game.
Drake University
After winning four National Championships at the Division II level at Northwest Missouri State, Ben McCollum took the head coaching job at Drake and brought four of his players with him. McCollum and the players he brought over had no problem adjusting to Division I play, as the Bulldogs went 30-3 and dominated the Missouri Valley Conference. This team is more tight-knit than ugly sweaters at Christmas parties. It is a true ‘David vs Goliath’ matchup against the University of Missouri, but if anyone can pull it off, it’s Ben McCollum.
Bracket busters
Duke University
The Blue Devils have been dominant all year, however they are not as battle-tested as other tournament teams. The Atlantic Coast Conference didn’t produce much high-level competition for Duke. The Blue Devils do have first-year forward Cooper Flagg, who is widely considered as the best freshman in the country and likely No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. This Duke team is loaded with talent, but they lack experience, relying too heavily on underclassmen talent. This is similar to last year’s team, which got upset by in-state rival North Carolina State, and due to that, I believe their tournament ceiling is the Elite Eight.
Houston University
The Cougars do the same thing every year; they win a lot of games and then the calendar turns to March, and they never cut the nets down. There is a saying that goes, “Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” So don’t repeat it this year, and have Houston out by the Sweet 16.
Cinderella stories
University of Georgia
When you take a look at Georgia’s record of 20-12, it doesn’t exactly blow you away, but it had an absolute gauntlet of a schedule in the SEC and was playing ranked teams on a nightly basis. Georgia held its own in a lot of the games; some of its notable wins include Florida, St. Johns University and the University of Kentucky. Don’t be shocked if the Bulldogs make a deep tournament run.
University of Oregon
While being a five seed might not exactly qualify for a “Cinderella” team, I think this team is not getting nearly enough attention. The Ducks have quality wins over teams like the University of Wisconsin, University of Maryland, Alabama and Texas A&M University. They are a popular pick to get upset by Liberty University in the first round, but I see them at least making it to the Sweet 16.
