Excitement has filled the air of the basketball world as the NBA Playoffs have finally arrived: 16 teams, 15 series, potentially 105 games and one champion.
This season’s contenders are pretty easy to point to. In the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics (61-21) and Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18) are expected to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals; anything less would be considered a failure. In the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) get that distinction.
The Thunder, the NBA’s best team, smashed the NBA’s point differential record, previously held by the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers. OKC is led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, features multiple All-Defensive talents and has more depth than anyone; they are the team to beat, according to Vegas they are +175 favorites.
The Cavs were the NBA’s best offense, averaging 121.9 points per game, the second-best mark in NBA history. Cleveland has the best defensive frontcourt in the NBA, with 6-foot-11 Jarrett Allen and 6-foot-11 Evan Mobley. Those two hold opponents to 52% on two-pointers, the second-best mark in the NBA. The Cavs will sweep whatever team they face in round one and will likely face the Indiana Pacers (50-32), followed by the Celtics, which is maybe the most difficult path to the NBA Finals.
The Celtics will play the New York Knicks (51-31) or Detroit Pistons (44-38) in the second round–more likely the Knicks. While Detroit’s turnaround is stunning, its lack of experience and dependence on Cade Cunningham will be detrimental against New York, who have elite defensive wings and Head Coach Tom Thibodeau. Nevertheless, the Knicks stand practically no chance against the Celtics; even Spike Lee would agree. The Knicks lack of success against top-10 teams (6-16) is jarring, and their poor paint defense since acquiring Karl-Anthony Towns has destroyed their aspirations for a title.
The East’s third-best contender and a team that might stand a chance is the Pacers, who have the fourth-best record since the new year and are 15-9 against the NBA’s top-10 teams.
Given the likelihood of a Celtics-Cavs ECF, it’s crucial to observe their weaknesses. While the Cavs lack any statistical weakness, the eye test highlights their small guards. The trio of Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell and Ty Jerome all have serious problems on defense; if Cleveland can’t protect those guys, then Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum could both average 27 points per game. For Boston, its pace of play is concerning, as it ranks fourth slowest in the NBA. The Celtics are also last in transition points per game; it’ll be crucial for Boston to find a way to speed itself up without compromising quality looks.
In the West, the Thunder’s path will be similar to the Cavs’ path: a first-round sweep followed by an intriguing second-round series. OKC will either face the Denver Nuggets (50-32) or the Los Angeles Clippers (50-32); one team is on fire while the other fired their head coach with three games left in the regular season. Denver has totally collapsed this season; the Nuggets are .500 since March and 10-17 against the NBA’s best 10 teams. Denver’s 22nd-ranked defense allows more shot attempts and assists than all but a few teams, and its offense is last in three-pointers attempted. Given the Nuggets play a Clippers team that forces inefficient shots, they are in deep trouble.
This off season, the Clippers signed Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr.. During the regular season, they signed Ben Simmons and saw drastic improvement from 7-footer Ivica Zubac. This group, alongside a healthy Kawhi Leonard, has the fourth-best defense in the NBA. Not only do the Clippers have all the stats to prove they’re not to be taken lightly, but they also have the best pick-and-roll duo Nikola Jokić has faced: James Harden and Zubac. Harden is 16-6 against Jokić since 2016 and is +112 in those 22 games. They are, in my opinion, the second-best contender in the West.
The Clippers or Thunder will likely face the Golden State Warriors or Lakers in the WCF. The Warriors are 23-7 since acquiring Jimmy Butler; though, their rotation has poor spacing with so many non-shooters, ironic considering the greatness of Steph Curry. For the Lakers, they are 18-10 with Luka Dončić; regardless, it’s clear that L.A. doesn’t have the infrastructure to support Dončić’s weak defense. The Lakers also lack a reliable center. The only way L.A. makes it to the Finals is if Dorian Finney-Smith and Jarred Vanderbilt have the playoff runs of a lifetime.
So, who will win it all? I believe we’ll see a Celtics-Thunder NBA Finals that’ll go at least six games. The Thunder’s active hands, lengthy defenders and strong interior of Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren make them the popular pick. Still, their lack of playoff experience is difficult to overlook. They remind me of the 2022 Celtics, who lost to a more experienced Warriors team in the Finals. The Celtics experience and star power give them a slight edge, and I expect the Celtics to win in six.
