The 2026 Academy Awards ceremony will be one to remember for years to come, containing some of the most competitive races in recent memory that will leave a mark on history no matter which nominees come out on top.
Last year, there were only two semi-competitive races in the acting categories, Best Actor and Best Actress, with only one “upset” being pulled off in Mikey Madison’s Best Actress win. This year, every acting award except Best Actress is up for grabs.
Before the Actor Awards, formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards, took place, Timothée Chalamet was the frontrunner for Best Actor for his performance as Marty Mauser in Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme,” with 79 percent odds in his favor according to Polymarket.
Then, in a surprising turn of events, presenter Viola Davis shouted, “You are shining, Herald Loomis! Michael B. Jordan!” Davis’ line references August Wilson’s play “Joe Turner’s Come and Gone,” where Loomis overcomes hardship to experience a breakthrough of self-discovery and fulfillment.
This is Jordan’s first Oscar nomination, and it would certainly be deserving of a win. Jordan played identical twins, Smoke and Stack, in Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” which received a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations.
Jordan’s odds on Polymarket jumped to 38 percent, as 18 of the last 20 SAG Award winners would end up winning the Oscar.
Chalamet is one of the two SAG winners not to win the Oscar in last year’s race for his role as Bob Dylan in the biopic “A Complete Unknown.”
I wouldn’t be mad to see either Chalamet or Jordan receive the golden statue, as they are both giving career-best performances in two of the top films of 2025. They are joined by fellow nominees Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke and Wagner Moura, who grabbed a win at the Golden Globes.
On the other hand, Best Actress has pretty much been in the hands of Jessie Buckley, who starred in Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet.” It’s worth noting that Rose Byrne took home the Best Actress in a musical or comedy at the Golden Globes, alongside Buckley in the drama category.
Veterans Kate Hudson and Emma Stone also sit in the category, but Renate Reinsve is who I’d consider a dark horse, as she delivered a silently powerful performance in Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value.”
The supporting actor category is also stacked with film legends such as Delroy Lindo, Sean Penn, Stellan Skarsgård and Benicio Del Toro. This made Jacob Elordi’s win at the Critics’ Choice Awards an exciting start to the race.
Skarsgård shook things up by taking home the Golden Globe, but it was Penn who received the BAFTA and Actor Award. Penn, a two-time Oscar winner, was not present at either ceremony, proving that a lack of a campaign doesn’t matter all that much in the end.
Admittedly, Penn delivered a great performance as Colonel Lockjaw in Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” but I’d rather see his co-star Benicio Del Toro take it home at the Oscars. Del Toro played Sergio St. Carlos, a scene-stealer with lots of charisma, and creating a strong comedic dynamic with DiCaprio.
An equally chaotic race, Best Supporting Actress has seen three different winners across the four major awards given out so far. Amy Madigan for “Weapons” is the frontrunner heading into the Oscars with wins in the Critics’ Choice and the Actors. Teyana Taylor in “One Battle After Another” took home the Golden Globe, and Wunmi Mosaku in “Sinners” was the BAFTA winner.
Clearly, voters have gone for the horror and thriller performances rather than the more subtle performances of Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning in “Sentimental Value.”
It would certainly be a step forward for the entire horror genre if Madigan takes home the Oscar, but I have a feeling it’ll go to Taylor, who delivered a strong performance as Perfidia Beverly Hills. Assuming that “One Battle After Another” will perform as well at the Oscars as it has at the previous four major award shows, this will boost Taylor’s campaign.
Is this finally the year that Paul Thomas Anderson wins an Academy Award? It seems almost guaranteed. Anderson has taken home best director and best picture at all of the major award ceremonies so far.
“Sinners” took home an outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture at the Actor Awards, so it will be Anderson’s biggest competition when it comes to best picture. Even if Coogler sneaks in and grabs best director (which would be awesome), “Sinners” is in the Original Screenplay while “One Battle After Another” is an Adapted Screenplay, so they could each get their accolades.
Ludwig Göransson’s “Sinners” original score has swept awards season so far, and I’m looking forward to it being recognized as the masterpiece that it is on the Academy stage. I’d also love to see the original song “I Lied to You” from “Sinners” be awarded, but it seems like “K-pop Demon Hunters’” “Golden” has that category in a lock.
The Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood hosts what will most definitely be an entertaining 98th Academy Awards ceremony on Sunday at 7 p.m., which will air on ABC and stream on Hulu.
