The United Nations Environment Programme released a report predicting that the planet is likely to exceed the 1.5℃ global average temperature rise above pre-industrial times within the next few years.
The report, “Limiting Overshoot,” predicts that the global maximum above industrial times could potentially reach 1.8℃. The 1.5℃ measure was set by the 2015 Paris Climate Accords, with the understanding that the global average temperature would rise by that degree by 2100. The threshold was set in the hopes of preventing disastrous environmental consequences that occur as a result of global warming.
“Overshoot,” as defined by the report released on Sept. 2, means that the planet has the potential to exceed a 1.5℃ global average temperature rise, then return to that temperature by 2100.
“I think it’s very well-known within the community that we are going to cross the 1.5℃ temperature target,” Ambarish Karmalkar, research lead for URI’s Climate Dynamics Lab, said. “Last year was an indication that we are moving in that direction pretty quickly, so it’s not surprising at all.”
In 2017, Karmalkar published a co-authored paper regarding the consequences of global warming in the contiguous U.S. He said that a global average temperature rise of 1.5℃ constitutes that land will always warm faster than water, because water requires more energy to heat up.
“When global average temperature reaches 2℃ warming, we would already experience 3℃ warming here in the Northeast,” Karmalkar said.
2024 was the first year on record where the global average temperature exceeded 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels, according to a UNEP story explaining overshoot. Climate change is measured across several decades instead of single years, but the 2024 temperatures are a warning bell for the future.
Karmalkar said the report has generated discussion within the scientific community about carbon dioxide removal as a solution to the planet’s rising temperature.
“It’s not a solution in that sense, because we just don’t know how to do it at that scale, and it won’t work if we don’t reduce emissions to begin with,” Karmalkar said.
On a global scale, some of the most irreversible changes will come from sea level rise.
“Greenland contains about six meters’ equivalent of sea level rise, so if you were to melt all of the Greenland ice sheet and put that water in the ocean, global sea level would go up by six meters,” Karmalkar said. “In Antarctica, there is close to 50 plus meters of ice that is locked up. We cannot easily put it back into those ice sheets on human time scales.”
Permafrost containing carbon, methane and other materials is also a concern among climate scientists.
“That is thawing out and will put more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” Karmalkar said.
Lucia Marvin-Debuse, secretary of URI Student Action for Sustainability, said that the information in the UNEP report can create a lot of worry and fear among students.
“Everyone’s lives will be affected, but definitely some people more than others,” Marvin-Debuse said. “I think it’s so unfair, because typically, the people that have no say are the ones that are most affected by these types of things.”
Small island developing states and coastal areas like Rhode Island are most at risk, especially with rising sea levels.
“Even if we imagine an amazing technology that would draw down carbon dioxide, we would still experience growing sea levels for the next century,” Karmalkar said. “Coastal regions are going to see these changes for a very long time, so in that sense, reducing emissions is really important.”
Karmalkar said the best way for average civilians to cope with and take actions against these changes is to talk about it to the point that they are willing to vote about it.
“We have to realize that climate change and its impacts is not a far away problem anymore,” Karmalkar said. “It’s already happening.”
Marvin-Debuse also said that students can change their behaviors and attitudes, as well as staying educated.
“You don’t have to read a full UN report to stay connected in the world,” Marvin-Debuse said.
